Football has a reputation for unpredictability. That’s one of the many things that makes it so captivating. This is especially true in a promotion race. With what is at stake, the constant shifting of the picture and drama on the pitch can be incredible to watch.
But this season there has been a promotion race like no other. One so tight and so dramatic that it can be at times impossible to predict what will happen next. Welcome to the National League South promotion race.
To get a clear picture of just how tight this race truly is, it is important to be familiarised with the league table.
As seen above, there are just three points separating first and sixth. With a National League South season lasting 46 games, this means there is just one game left. This sets up an incredible final day, where any one of these six teams could still end up as league champions and earn promotion. To have this many teams still in with a shout this late on in a season is simply unheard of, and will make for an incredible day of drama.
Notable among the six clubs are two local sides who are looking to come out with the glory. Truro City sit top of the league, and would take one step closer to becoming the first ever Cornish EFL club if they were to win promotion to the National League for next season.
It would be the latest achievement in a string of successes for the club. The first of these was earning promotion back to this level in 2022/23, winning the Southern League Premier South play-offs after spending four seasons at Step 3. Then this season, they moved back to Truro after exile in Plymouth, moving into a purpose-built 3,000-seater stadium, which provided the club a “21st century facility”, according to Cornish councillor Olly Monk.
It has been a good few years for The Tinners, and promotion to the National League would be the icing on the cake. They host St Albans City on the final day of the season, where a win would likely be enough to see them lift the title.
Hot on Truro’s heels however are the other local side involved in the race, Torquay United. They sit level on points with Truro going into the final day. The Gulls have reached higher than any club in the race, which includes time spent in the Football League, but have recently fallen on hard times.
They were relegated into the National League South last season, and it only went from bad to worse, as the club went into administration, and was docked 11 points, slipping to the lows of 18th place. New ownership arrived in the summer however, in the form of a consortium that included legendary football manager Neil Warnock, who re-joined the club he had managed in 1993 as a football advisor.
After the takeover was announced, he expressed his fondness for the club, and later said: “I think I can help in a few areas. There’s the football side, of course, but I think I can also help with things like sponsors, which I’ve done in the past at other clubs.”
The optimism surrounding the takeover translated to success on the pitch, and fans at Plainmoor are hopeful this is the year they can return to the National League. They travel to face Hemmel Hempstead Town on the final day. A win would be enough if Truro drop points, but if both teams win and Torquay better Truro’s win by four goals, then they would still go up on goal difference.
Moving further down the table, we find Eastbourne Borough and Worthing, who both sit a point behind Truro and Torquay, with Eastbourne ahead thanks to goal difference. They have returned to the upper reaches of the league after a poor season last year when they finished 19th, while Worthing have bounced back well after play-off final heartbreak last season to put themselves in the hunt once again.
Eastbourne have the toughest fixture of the six, hosting play-off chasers Weston-Super-Mare, while Worthing travel to struggling Enfield Town. Both teams are relying on dropped points from both Truro and Torquay. A draw from both would be enough for either of the chasers if they can win while the other doesn’t, but if both do Eastbourne will take the title thanks to their superior goal difference. A draw may be enough for Eastbourne if both the top two lose, but that is unlikely as Truro would have to lose by seven goals and Torquay by five.
The last two sides that can still win the title are Boreham Wood and Dorking Wanderers, who both sit two points behind Eastbourne and Worthing, and three behind Truro and Torquay. They are both recent additions from the National League, having been relegated last season in 21st and 23rd respectively. On the final day, Boreham Wood travel to Tonbridge Angels while Dorking face Chesham United at home.
Out of the six, these two have the hardest task ahead of them if they want to lift the title. They are reliant on both Truro and Torquay losing, Eastbourne and Worthing not winning, and they have to win themselves.
The only thing going for either side is their goal difference, as both sides have superior goal difference to all of the other four teams still left in the hunt, which means that any sort of win would do, and they would not be forced to win by a certain margin. Boreham Wood have the best goal difference of them all however, so if everything goes in the favour of these two sides and they both win, it would be them who lift the title.
Whatever the outcome, it is set to be an absolutely enthralling finish to one of the best promotion races which football has ever seen. The final round of fixtures takes place this weekend, and there will likely be many twists and turns throughout the 90 minutes. Six teams can still claim the crown, but only one will prevail, while the rest will be condemned to the play-offs. Who will taste the glory of promotion? We are about to find out!