The Premier League, the league that many claim is the best the world has ever seen, has always been under question on the competitivity side of things and whether it truly is the best league in world football ahead of the likes of La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga with many different factors coming into play as to why people recognise it to such a high status.

However, one thing religiously which has been a part of that argument is the ability for new teams to incorporate their football team into the 20-team league from the divisions below following promotion from the EFL championship. Recently it has been portrayed on social media and within the footballing world, that the gap between the Premier League and the EFL Championship is opening wider than ever seen before… which makes us question, “Has the Premier League failed its promise of competitive openness?”

 To really dive into the depths of whether this concern about the competition is justified, it’s important to start by looking at the relegation data over the last three decades and identify any concerning trends, and from research since the millennium turn a pattern has emerged:

• 2000–2010: 12 of 30 promoted teams relegated (40%)

• 2010–2020: 12 of 30 promoted teams relegated (40%)

• 2020–present: 10 of 15 promoted teams relegated (67%)

The halfway point of the 2020s decade suggests that by the end if carrying on the rate at least 20 teams out of 30 will suffer a devastating fate of relegation after just the first season in the Premier League. This dramatic rise is suggesting an imbalance in the competition hence why we need to have a further look at other aspects of it.

Firstly, like many things in modern society, football is becoming shaped by financial side of play and money is playing a key part. Money, which always divides the rich and the poor to a big extent, has an impact when it comes to football as well and is becoming an issue in terms of competition in the league as well.

As people would explain it in basic terms to have the best players you need to splash a lot of cash and if you don’t have the cash to compete you will end up with the plan B and plan C of your list as that’s how it always works in society.

Payrolls/wages are a key data of judging a team’s financial capabilities. With figures collected courtesy of Capology, its clear to see that this season the teams in terms of financial rate are competing with already established clubs with Brentford, who have been in the league for four years, having the lowest payroll in the entire division, in the bottom three only one newly promoted club in Burnley have a lower payroll which is encouraging signs in terms of competition.

However, we do have to realise the status of Leeds United and AFC Sunderland who were sleeping giants in the division below, they already had a decent inflow of money along with the size of the club and promotion money too which can’t be applied to every club like in this case Burnley.

In fact, in the 23/24 season, Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield united all had the lowest combined payroll total in Premier League history for a set of newly promoted clubs and were all consequently relegated immediately. They also tallied the lowest combined points record as well hence reflecting the effect of payrolls in the division.

In comparison, the early 2010s showed a much closer gap between financial payrolls with the newly promoted clubs. The newly promoted teams sat a lot closer money wise to established mid table teams compared to this recent decade, which evidently showed competition wise too. The 23/24 season had the biggest gap between the relegated clubs and above with over £20 Million difference.

Along with Payrolls and wages, we can look at Transfer expenditure courtesy of Transfermarkt collected data and figures, firstly looking into the current season 25/26, which the results are very interesting to see. Newly promoted clubs this season are positioned 15^th, 14^th and 9^th in terms of money expenditure this season, which is above already established clubs like Brighton, Brentford etc…

With a combined spending of over £350M this season between the new clubs, money spending doesn’t seem to be an issue, and this has been reflected over a long period with even Sheffield united spending £100M plus back in 2023.

However, looking into this data, the money spends doesn’t really reflect positive performance in the league as shown through recent history with Burnley this season currently sat six points adrift despite a mass spending of over £100M this season.

This evidently suggests that spending a large amount of money alone is not enough. Recruitment quality, squad balance and player experience plays a key part too as we investigate that next…

A more revealing statistic to look at in comparison to the previous one of expenditure, is squad market value to make a fair comparison of established clubs to those who have spent a lot of money but are newly promoted.

 For example if we once again take this current season Burnley and Leeds United who finished top two in the EFL Championship are within the bottom three for squad value and market value this season, this has been reflect with them being the worst two promoted sides below Sunderland so far, Wolves take up the other position which is also reflected in their league position so far this season however all these clubs spent heavily in the window not showing a lack of ambition but rather a lack of squad quality.

In the earlier Premier League eras this disparity among the newly promoted teams existed but not to the extent it does now. This mirrors what a lot of people have been saying regarding the talent distribution among the established top-flight clubs making it harder for newer ones to compete due to the enhanced quality of sides.

For example, we can look directly into this season for findings of how positive inflow of quality into a squad can help transform a team and make them capable to compete at the highest level. With this current season we can identify the case study of AFC Sunderland who after a nine-year exodus from the Premier League have returned and competing to a very high level, if we look at their transfers this season closer, we can see why…

As we can clearly investigate from this signing list for the season most of their players that they have brought in have a lot of experience despite some still being at a young age of under twenty five, this shows their plan and how it has positively impacted the club this season considering last season they finished below fellow promotion rivals, Leeds United and Burnley, they are now a level above them, once again it identifies that with the right recruitment it can really help to solidify a team to compete at this level.

On the contrary, spending loads of money like the black cats done in the summer doesn’t always mean success will come to the newly promoted teams and there are cases where we can see this too, for example, back in the 2018/19 premier league season Fulham were newly promoted to the division and spent over £160M in the summer window and despite this they still finished in 19^th position and below other promoted clubs who spent notably less..

The thing to notably look at here is despite the clubs where they signed from looking better in this day and age at the time a lot of these clubs where they signed players from were in a transitional and struggling period, for example Newcastle united were only in their second season and Aleksander Mitrovic had scored under ten goals for the magpies, at the same time Michael Seri wasn’t a prominent starter for Marseille despite his large price tag back then, all this compared to Sunderland’s deals who brought in a title winner in Granit Xhaka and champions league starters such as Chesmedine Talbi makes the difference to the squad.

Another aspect we must consider since this apparent opening of the gap, is the fact promoted clubs seem to be losing their star players along with promotion.

Back in 2023 Sheffield United lost both Sander Berge and Ilimian Ndiaye when promoted which were their two key players ultimately leading to relegation, Burnley also suffered the same fate this season losing CJ Egan-Riley and James Trafford their goalkeeper, with their defence being their main core of their team last season.

This is becoming more of a norm due to the sheer amount of money that established teams in the division can take off players from newly promoted clubs due to wages etc.

To look closer on the pitch away from all the behind the scenes and managerial decisions it’s important for us to look at evidence of data on the pitch as well over a period to compare what’s happened in the last era.

The widening of the gap is not only evidential on balance sheets but also when it comes to down seasonal statistics as well on the pitch.

Staistical trends on the pitch are suggesting that newly promoted teams are struggling massively defensively in recent years compared to before:

• 2017/18 – 157 goals conceded combined
• 2023/24 – 267 goals conceded combined

Shockingly in terms of attacking output the numbers have not changed much over the past decade at all, with numbers slowly increasing in the 2020s but not by much. Over the past decade newly promoted teams combined have usually hit between 100 to 130 goals scored which seems to always fluctuate season by season

The imbalance compared to the defensive side suggests that newly promoted teams aren’t struggling attacking wise, but something has massively caused the defensive issues to increase over that period

The decisive metric to use though is the goal difference which tells the clearest story of it all throughout the last decade.

Broken down we can clearly see that the goal difference combined between all promoted teams each season has almost worsened by over –100 which is not a promising sign at all. This tells us that with conceding loads of goals as our data showed us teams are not making up for it enough on the attacking front which is making teams pick up less points and ultimately fail to compete in the league.

If this trend continues to grow season by season it could look a dire situation for newly promoted sides in the decade to come.

Obviously when it comes to football one of the most important things is the people involved whether thats the players, members of staff, owners, fans. Football is always about a community where voices are heard and translated with actions on the pitch

We interviewed Leeds United fan and social media content creator Lucas Kalabza who runs FocusLeeds on Instagram about the perceived widening gap.

“Everything happens quicker. Decisions are sharper, and one mistake is punished by someone who costs ten times your entire backline.”

Once again with one of the main emphases from him being the money:

he said, “The money shows everywhere, better training grounds, recovery methods and medical staff.”

When questioned upon one thing he would fix in relation to the gap between the leagues:

He said, “sort the money distribution, parachute payments are killing it, relegated teams come down with a massive financial cushion which lets them buy their way back up.

We, also tried to reach out to Preston North End player and former Brighton defender, Odel Offiah, but due to his “busy schedule” was unable to respond in time…

Despite the rapid decline in percentage of survival in England’s top-flight since the turn of the last decade, there has been a few encouraging signs to suggest it’s not all doom and gloom in relation to the gap between the Premier League and the depths below. For example, we can have a look at certain case studies of football clubs recently which have found a way to break the wall and become an established Premier League side defying the ever-increasing odds and pressure.

Bournemouth

One team which has found a way to become an established Premier League club is what some used to describe as minnows AFC Bournemouth, who still have a stadium capacity of 11,307 which is less than some non-league and league two teams can hold. Despite the odds they have found a way to go from all the way from league two football, on the brink of extinction, to reaching the heights of the current season where they were 2^nd in the league after nine league games…

The club was first promoted to the Premier League for the first time in their history back in 2014/15 with the following season being their first in the topflight under Manager Eddie Howe. They managed to survive by five points finishing ahead of giants like Newcastle United and Aston Villa in which was one of the strangest seasons in premier league history

The club have since spent eight out of ten seasons in the first division only suffering relegation once from which they have bounced back from in fabulous style and are reaping the benefits of quality recruitment and clear board vision from the club.

Nottingham Forest

Another club to investigate over this past decade which have defied the odds and returned to their supposed giant status to an extent is Nottingham Forest.

The club returned to the Premier League in 2022/23 season following an exodus of over 20 years from the topflight but beat Huddersfield Town in the playoff final to achieve promotion. However, their first season back was not an easy route to survival as they only won once in their opening 13 games which lead to them being in the bottom three. The club survived on the penultimate game of the season against title race running Arsenal with a 1-0 win at the City Ground to relegate rivals Leicester City and Leeds United.

Despite this incredible feat, the club was overshadowed by media due to the sheer amount of money they spent in their first season after promotion

As you can see from their signings that window the club signed over twenty players and created a lot of media attention due to their ridiculous spending being one of the highest, we’ve ever seen from a newly promoted club in the history of the league.

This led to implications in the following season which caused a lot of controversy. This was due to the fact the club received a points deduction due to breaking financial fair play rules alongside Everton who received a bigger deduction in the same season. Both clubs ended up surviving due to 23/24 lowest points tally to survive in the history of the league.

Obviously, the questions arose in the media after the following two seasons whether football clubs now must break the rules to achieve survival in the Premier League.

The Premier League has yet to close its doors yet to the abyss below, but recent research suggests it becoming harder for clubs to establish themselves in the holy land of the Premier League. Survival has no longer just become about managerial quality and results but in fact increasingly dependent on financial side of things as well as Recruitment precision and institutional stability.

If current trends and data continue, the supposed best league in the world risks excluding one of its key principles: that promotion brings opportunity, not inevitability

The investigation poses the solution that something must change, or it will continue to grow at an alarming rate soon.